We came out of the long weekend to a market that, on the surface, looks steady: milk production is still climbing week over week, cheese vats are running at capacity to absorb it, and Class III has held in a narrow band, mostly flat to about a dollar over class. American and Italian-type cheese output both remain well ahead of where they sat two years ago, and cream cheese lines are already ramping for the December baking season. If that were the whole story, this would be a quiet post.
It isn't the whole story, because the thing actually pinching members right now isn't the milk, it's everything downstream of it. A first wave of Omicron reports over the holiday weekend has already put a few countries back into travel-restriction mode, and while that's a public-health story more than a cheese story, it lands on top of a supply chain that hasn't recovered from the last eighteen months of disruption. Several of you told us on last week's committee calls that packaging lead times have stretched again — one member reported a box order placed in October that won't arrive until February. Retail-ready labels, corrugated inserts, and gift-set components are all showing the same pattern, and it isn't limited to any one supplier.
What we're watching for you
The federation doesn't have a fix for a container backlog, but we can tell you what to plan around. If you sell direct-to-consumer gift boxes or wholesale holiday sets, order your packaging now for anything you'll need in the next eight to ten weeks — not the next four. If you haven't locked in freight for December shipments, ask your carrier for a written date rather than a window; "sometime in December" isn't something you can build a fulfillment calendar on.
On the milk side, the read for small and mid-size producers is more favorable than it's been in a while. Seasonal cheese demand is clearing extra volume, and a few members on fixed milk contracts have told us this is the first fall in two years where the math has actually worked in their favor. If your creamery buys milk rather than milking its own herd, this is a good week to revisit your contract terms before the winter renewal cycle, while your supplier still has attention to spare before the holiday crunch fully hits.
We know several of you are also watching the case itself — how much shelf space specialty cheese is holding against private-label and imported product heading into the holidays. Early counter reports from members suggest specialty is holding its share, helped by the same gift-and-entertaining demand that's straining the box supply. Members running their own retail counters have told us foot traffic is already ahead of last year's pace, even accounting for the usual pre-holiday bump, though we'll have a fuller read once sell-through numbers come in from members in January.
If your creamery is dealing with a specific supply constraint this month — packaging, coolers, freight, or labor — email the federation office. We're compiling a members-only list of alternate suppliers members have used successfully this quarter, and the more creameries that report in, the more useful that list gets for everyone heading into the busiest six weeks of the year.
The International Cheese Federation (ICF) and More Cheese are entirely fictional. This post is demonstration content created for MemberJunction. All people, organizations, events, courses, certifications, figures, and quotations in it are invented, and nothing here represents a real association, a real business, a real person, or real professional advice.