Thanksgiving week is a strange one to write a markets post for, because most of you have already made the calls that matter — your holiday order is placed, your case is stocked, and you're watching the calendar more than the price sheet. Still, a few numbers from this fall are worth carrying into the new year, because they explain why your phone has been busier than usual.
U.S. dairy exports are on pace to close out 2021 at a record, with full-year export value up sharply over last year. Competitive pricing on cheese, whey, and milk powder has kept American product moving overseas even as the logistics around getting it there got harder, not easier. If you sell into any export channel, even indirectly through a distributor with an overseas book, that combination — strong demand, tight shipping — is the story of your fall.
Domestically, the picture is just as firm. The all-milk price has moved up meaningfully since summer, and cheese block and barrel prices have both held through November's usual pre-holiday jitters. Food service demand is steadier than it's been in over a year, and several regional grocers have told their suppliers they're adding cheese promotions to weekly ads rather than trimming them — a small but real signal that retail buyers expect shoppers to spend on the cheese board this year.
What's still the bottleneck
None of that changes the thing our members have been telling us since late summer: capacity, not demand, is the constraint. Container availability and freight cost are still the top complaint we hear on export calls, and domestic carriers aren't much looser. If you're a small producer shipping wholesale, the practical version of this is simple — book earlier than feels necessary, and confirm twice. A vendor who quoted you a rate in October may not be able to honor it in December without a new conversation.
For members selling direct to consumers this week, the read is more comfortable. Holiday cheese demand looks real this year, not just resilient, and we've heard from more than one producer that this is the first November since 2019 that felt like a normal season rather than an improvised one. If your case is thin heading into the weekend, a short-notice restock from a regional distributor is a better bet than it was a year ago, when everyone was chasing the same trucks at once.
It's also worth saying plainly, since it's a question we get every year around this time: none of this is guidance on what to charge. Your pricing is yours to set against your own costs, and a strong export year for the category doesn't tell you what your specific case should do this weekend. What it does tell you is that the broader demand backdrop is favorable, and that's useful context when you're deciding how deep to stock for the next six weeks.
One thing to watch
Keep an eye on the last full week of November for the next round of federal price data — it tends to set the tone for December contracts. We'll flag anything that moves the number meaningfully in a future post. Until then, have a good week, and if your holiday order came up short, our Membership & Outreach Committee keeps a running list of members with surplus wholesale capacity; a note to the committee inbox is often faster than a cold call to a new supplier.
The International Cheese Federation (ICF) and More Cheese are entirely fictional. This post is demonstration content created for MemberJunction. All people, organizations, events, courses, certifications, figures, and quotations in it are invented, and nothing here represents a real association, a real business, a real person, or real professional advice.