Federal agricultural data released this fall showed something members have been asking us to explain for weeks: milk production growth has slowed to its weakest pace in roughly two decades, even as cheese exports and domestic cheese sales are holding up better than most of us expected. Two numbers moving in opposite directions usually means somebody's margin is about to get squeezed, and this time it's worth walking through who.
Milk yields are still climbing week to week in the central production regions, but the year-over-year growth curve has flattened hard since late summer. At the same time, Class III sales tied to cheesemaking have stayed strong, with plants reporting solid volumes for their immediate production needs. That's a market where cheese demand isn't the problem — supply of the raw milk to make it is quietly becoming one.
What this means if you're buying, not just making
If your creamery buys milk on the open market rather than milking your own herd, this is the moment to lock in November and December volumes rather than waiting for a spot deal. Buyers who assumed milk would keep getting cheaper through the holidays are finding a market that's steadier than that, with premiums in some regions running a dollar or more over Class in exchange for reliable delivery. If you've been quoting holiday gift-box orders based on last year's input costs, it's worth rerunning those numbers before you confirm anything with a retail buyer.
For members who also sell into export channels, the same tightness cuts the other way. Export volumes have been a genuine bright spot this year, and a domestic market that's a little short on milk doesn't change that demand — it just means your production planning has less slack in it than it did in 2020. If your fall calendar already has export paperwork or a shipment queued, don't let a milk-supply squeeze at home become the reason it slips.
Freight is still the other half of the story
None of this happens in a vacuum where trucking is easy. Members in several regions are still telling us that driver availability and freight costs are the binding constraint on getting product to a buyer on time, not the cheese itself. A tighter milk market layered on top of an already-strained freight market is exactly the kind of combination that turns a two-week holiday order into a six-week one if you wait to place it. If you haven't already talked to your carrier about December capacity, this week is a better time than next week.
We know a lot of members read a headline like "milk production growth slows" and hear "prices are about to spike," and sometimes that's true. But the more useful read this fall is narrower: this is a market rewarding members who lock in supply and freight early, and gently punishing anyone still shopping around in mid-December. If you want a second opinion on how this maps to your specific region, our Membership & Outreach Committee has been fielding exactly these questions and is a good first call.
The International Cheese Federation (ICF) and More Cheese are entirely fictional. This post is demonstration content created for MemberJunction. All people, organizations, events, courses, certifications, figures, and quotations in it are invented, and nothing here represents a real association, a real business, a real person, or real professional advice.