If your counter usually carries a rotating cast of imported wheels alongside the domestic case, you have probably noticed something odd this fall: the import list is a little shorter, and the wholesalers filling it are a little less patient about locking in orders.
Two things are happening at once, and neither is really about you or your suppliers doing anything wrong. Domestic cheese exports have kept climbing through the fall, on a growth streak that's now run seven months, with cheese shipments abroad up double digits over the same stretch last year. That's a genuinely good story for producers selling overseas, and it means more of the domestic supply that used to sit around for the wholesale case is finding a home abroad instead. Meanwhile, European producers are dealing with a much sharper problem: wholesale energy costs there have made running an aging cave or a drying operation dramatically more expensive than it was two years ago, and that's tightening what they can send this direction. Supply from both major exporting regions is behaving differently than usual, and the net effect shows up as a thinner import case at exactly the time of year when members want it fullest.
None of this means the holiday case has to be smaller. It means the sourcing conversation has to start earlier than it used to. If you've been in the habit of calling your usual importer in the second week of November and expecting a normal turnaround, this is the year to call now, ask directly what's actually available versus what's on a maybe list, and get a second source lined up if your first one hedges.
What we'd ask your distributor
A few questions worth putting to whoever fills your import order this year:
- Is this a firm allocation or a "we'll see what comes in" allocation?
- Has the price on this wheel moved since the summer order, and by how much?
- If a style falls through, what's the substitute, and have you tasted it recently enough to vouch for it?
- What's the actual ship date, not the date the order was placed?
None of these are new questions. They just matter more this year, when a supplier's own costs upstream are moving in ways they may not fully control either. A distributor who can answer all four without hedging is one worth sticking with even if their price isn't the lowest quote you get.
Watch your own case too
Don't read this as purely an import story. Domestic cheese and butter prices have stayed elevated through the fall too, with feed and labor costs still working their way into what a wholesale block costs by the time it reaches your case. Export demand pulling on the same supply only adds to that pressure. If you're pricing a holiday gift box or a curated wheel selection, build in room for at least one supplier surprise between now and December. A case that looks fully sourced in early November can still have a gap by Thanksgiving, and the members who come through the season cleanest tend to be the ones who priced in that gap ahead of time rather than after a phone call that started with "so, about that order."
If you want a second opinion on your holiday sourcing plan, our Membership & Outreach Committee has been fielding exactly this question from creameries and shops both. Reach out through the member portal and we'll try to connect you with someone who's already solved the same puzzle this season.
The International Cheese Federation (ICF) and More Cheese are entirely fictional. This post is demonstration content created for MemberJunction. All people, organizations, events, courses, certifications, figures, and quotations in it are invented, and nothing here represents a real association, a real business, a real person, or real professional advice.