Two numbers moved in opposite directions this month, and members have been asking us which one actually matters for their fall pricing. National milk production came in a touch lower than earlier projections, while the federal forecast for cheese prices for the rest of the year moved up. Neither number tells the whole story on its own, and we've fielded enough calls about it that it seemed worth laying out plainly.
The milk side is the slower-moving of the two. Herd sizes and per-cow output don't swing in a month, so a downward revision to the year's production estimate mostly reflects feed costs and culling decisions made back in the spring. For members who buy milk rather than produce it, that revision matters less than the cheese-price side, where the forecast increase suggests tighter supply is starting to show up at wholesale.
What a forecast revision doesn't tell you
A federal price forecast is an average across a national market that includes commodity block cheese moving through channels most of our members never touch. If you're a farmstead producer selling wedges at a retail counter or a small creamery selling direct to a handful of specialty shops, the forecast is background noise more than a pricing signal — useful for understanding which way the tide is moving, not for setting next month's wholesale number.
That said, the direction is worth watching. When national cheese price forecasts move up while milk production estimates move down, it usually means someone in the supply chain is paying more for inputs before the retail shelf catches up. If you buy milk on contract, this is a reasonable moment to ask your supplier whether your renewal terms assume the spring numbers or the current ones. If you sell finished cheese wholesale, it's worth checking whether your own price list reflects a market that's already shifted under you.
What we're telling members who ask
Our answer this month has been the same one we give most falls: don't chase the forecast, but don't ignore it either. A member running a farmstead operation in the upper Midwest told us she uses the seasonal production dip as her cue to lock in feed contracts for winter rather than as a signal to change her own wholesale price — the two move on different clocks, and conflating them is how members end up over- or under-pricing a fall case.
If your business runs closer to commodity cheese — anyone selling into a distribution channel where block prices set the tone — this is a better month than most to revisit your contract terms before the next cycle locks in. And if you're not sure which category you fall into, that's a fair question for a Standards Committee volunteer or for anyone on staff who can walk through your specific supply chain with you.
We'll keep tracking both numbers through the fall and note here if the gap between them widens or closes. For now, treat the forecast as a weather report, not a price sheet — it tells you what's coming, not exactly when it lands on your invoice.
The International Cheese Federation (ICF) and More Cheese are entirely fictional. This post is demonstration content created for MemberJunction. All people, organizations, events, courses, certifications, figures, and quotations in it are invented, and nothing here represents a real association, a real business, a real person, or real professional advice.