If you sell any volume overseas, you've probably noticed that the news this spring reads two ways at once. On one hand, retaliatory tariffs are still in force on several of the largest destinations for US dairy, and a handful of members who export have told us those duties are already showing up as pushback from overseas buyers on price. On the other hand, demand for specialty and artisan cheese in some of those same markets has stayed strong enough that a few of our members are getting more inquiries than they can currently fill. Both things are true, and they don't cancel each other out.
The tariff picture, briefly: a temporary pause on some broader duties earlier this spring did little to help dairy specifically, because the largest export markets for US cheese carry their own separate tariffs that were never part of that pause. Members shipping to those markets are still paying — or more precisely, their buyers are still paying — a meaningfully higher landed cost than they were a year ago. For a wholesale account competing on price, that's a real problem. For a smaller producer selling a distinctive style that isn't easily substituted, buyers overseas appear to be more willing to absorb some of the increase, at least for now.
Why specialty seems to be holding up better
Trade economists watching the dairy sector this spring have made a version of the same point: commodity dairy products — bulk milk powder, plain block cheddar, the things that compete mostly on price per pound — are the most exposed to tariff-driven demand destruction, because a buyer who won't pay the new price has other suppliers to turn to. A wheel with a specific maker, a specific cave, and a following that wants exactly that cheese is harder to replace with a substitute from a country that isn't under the same tariff. That's not a guarantee of anything, and it's cold comfort if your buyer is a large distributor squeezed on margin rather than an end customer who cares about provenance. But it does help explain why some of our members with a genuinely differentiated product are describing a steadier spring than the tariff headlines alone would predict.
None of this is advice to chase export volume you don't already have relationships to support. Building a new export channel takes documentation, a landed-cost model, and usually a broker or freight forwarder who already knows the destination market — not something to improvise around a single good quarter.
What to check before you quote a price overseas
A few things worth confirming with your buyer or broker before you commit to a shipment this spring:
- Whether the tariff is being applied at the rate you think it is. Duty rates have moved more than once in the past few months, and an old quote can be wrong by the time goods actually cross.
- Who is absorbing the increase, in writing. A verbal understanding that "we'll work it out" tends to fall apart when the invoice arrives.
- Whether your destination country has announced, or is rumored to be considering, its own retaliatory measure on dairy specifically. That list has changed more than once this year.
If your business touches export markets and you want a second set of eyes on a landed-cost calculation, our Membership & Outreach Committee has fielded a steady stream of these questions this spring and can point you toward members who've been through a similar recalculation recently. It won't make the tariff go away, but it might keep you from underquoting a shipment you can't afford to send.
The International Cheese Federation (ICF) and More Cheese are entirely fictional. This post is demonstration content created for MemberJunction. All people, organizations, events, courses, certifications, figures, and quotations in it are invented, and nothing here represents a real association, a real business, a real person, or real professional advice.