Late last week, federal officials confirmed a fourth round of pandemic food purchases, with deliveries running from the first of November through the end of December. It follows three earlier rounds that, by member accounts, did more to steady cheese demand this year than almost anything else on the calendar. We've had a lot of questions about what it means for the weeks ahead, so here's where things stand.
What we're hearing from the case
Block and barrel cheese prices firmed through early October, and Midwest producers told us cheddar, process, and mozzarella orders had ticked up. That's the good news. The harder news is that demand keeps whipsawing — a strong week can be followed by a flat one, tied less to what your case looks like and more to whether a nearby county tightened restaurant capacity that week. Several members who sell wholesale said they're now building smaller batches more often rather than committing to a big run and hoping the order holds.
If you sell through foodservice accounts, that unevenness is probably familiar. A distributor member described it as "planning two calendars at once" — one for what a restaurant says it wants, one for what actually gets picked up. It isn't a comfortable way to run a case, but it's the reality for a lot of members right now, and it's worth naming rather than smoothing over.
The federal purchase round matters here because it pulls a meaningful volume of cheese and fluid milk out of a market that's had trouble finding a floor. Members who've supplied earlier rounds told us the paperwork is real but manageable, and payment has been reasonably prompt. If your creamery hasn't looked into whether you can participate — directly, or through a distributor who's already enrolled — this is a good week to ask.
What this doesn't fix, and where to go next
A federal purchase program is not a substitute for a rebuilt retail case or a restaurant that's back to full seating. It buys time and it buys volume, but it doesn't tell you what your case should look like in January when the program winds down and holiday demand fades with it. Members who leaned hardest on program volume this spring told us the transition back to normal sales channels afterward took real planning, not just relief that the check cleared.
Our suggestion, plain and unglamorous: treat any program volume as a bridge, not a floor. If you're supplying this round, use the next two months to also rebuild your direct and wholesale relationships rather than letting them go quiet. The members who came through the spring round in the best shape were the ones who kept calling their regular accounts even while the federal volume was covering the gap.
If you want a read on how this round compares to what came before, or you're trying to decide whether it's worth the paperwork for your size of operation, reach out to the federation office — we've talked to enough members who've been through it now to give you a straight answer. And if pricing swings like these are hitting your margin harder than you'd like, our Education Committee has resources on cost tracking that several members found useful earlier this year.
We'll keep watching the block and barrel numbers and let you know if anything shifts meaningfully before the holidays.
The International Cheese Federation (ICF) and More Cheese are entirely fictional. This post is demonstration content created for MemberJunction. All people, organizations, events, courses, certifications, figures, and quotations in it are invented, and nothing here represents a real association, a real business, a real person, or real professional advice.